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non angelus, sed anglus!

Georgia on my mind

Come on, that can’t be the worst of the various headlines that people are writing!

The BBC has an interesting piece on the crisis, discussing the role of the West…

The West still does not know how to deal with Russia.
Some of the old Cold War arguments are resurfacing, with no consensus about what to do. There are the neo-conservatives, led by US Vice-President Dick Cheney (and supported by Republican presidential candidate John McCain) who see Georgia (and Ukraine) as flag bearers for freedom which must be supported. In due course, they argue, Russia will be forced to change, just as the old Soviet Union was.

Against that is the argument, expressed to the BBC for example on Sunday by the former British Foreign Secretary Lord Owen, that it is “absurd” to treat Russia like the Soviet Union and that Georgia made a miscalculation in South Ossetia for which it is now paying.

Owen is, surely, right. Georgia called Russia’s bluff, perhaps even hoping that a conflict would spur NATO to provide the assistance which, to this point, they had been unwilling to give. Both Georgia and the Ukraine have recently been knocked back in the meantime for NATO membership. Quite sensibly, for who enters into an alliance with nations who are on the brink of conflict? That’s the BBC’s final point:

August is good month in which to reflect on alliances.
In August 1914, the First World War broke out following the assassination in June of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo. It did so because alliances had been formed in Europe which came into play inexorably. Russia supported Serbia, Germany supported Austria, France supported Russia and Britain came in when Belgium was invaded.

Alliances must not be entered into lightly or unadvisedly. If Georgia had been in Nato, what would have happened?

What would have happened? Well, NATO would have been forced to intervene, which nobody in their right mind wants. Hence, one suspects, the refusal to let Georgia join NATO in the first place.

Of course, Russia knew all this. But what they may not have banked on is their good fortune in Georgia precipitating an open conflict.

Back at school you never went into a fight in the playground unless you were sure you had decent back-up. It was foolishness to step up to your bigger rival unless you were certain you could bank the cheque that your mouth was writing. Sadly, Georgia has strolled into this scrap without a single wingman.

Posted by on 08/12 at 09:31 AM

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